Mortgage Rates Holding

Good morning!

Friday the 13th.  Ominous?  Scary?  The title of a movie?  Or just another day to kick off a summer weekend?

Who knows, I'm here to write about mortgage rates today.

Well, mortgage bonds made it through the June jobs report holding their ground.  All in all, conforming rates have been moving in about a 0.25 range over the past few weeks.  So, fairly stable.

Take a look at the chart below.  I'm writing this blog post before the market open so we will see what today brings.  Yesterday the mortgage bond market made some good gains and set a pivot point in place, for now.

I'm looking for continuation of the upside price momentum this morning.  What I'd like to see is that price get back above the red horizontal line in the chart below.  That red line shows where price resistance is expected.  If the market can gain above that resistance and hold its price, we should see rates holding their levels with possible improvement into next week.

Have a great weekend!
Brett
Email me here
Apply online for a new loan with me here.

Fannie Mae 3.5% Coupon Price

What? Lower Mortgage Rates Again? Yes!

Just a few minutes between meetings to jot down this important update.  What's happening?

Well, surprisingly enough, mortgage bonds are falling higher, pushing mortgage rates lower again.  Mortgage bonds are testing key resistance levels.  If these resistance levels break, we might see quite a rally taking rates lower.

Might we see the conforming 30 year fixed rate back under 4.0%  It is quite possible.

Check out today's chart below.

Fannie Mae 3.5% Coupon

Remember, in the chart, green is good (lower rates) and red is bad (higher rates).


If you want me to play with numbers and see if a refinance makes sense for you, let me know!

Brett Grendahl
952-393-9333 mobile
bgrendahl@bankingunusual.com

Memorial Day Weekend Brings Lowest Mortgage Rates of the Year

Good morning gang!

As I begin this post I notice I sure have taken some time between posts!  Too much face down in my work I guess.   :)

Time to share some thoughts on mortgage rates as we have reached lows for the year, and lows that are 11 month lows.

Take a look at the mortgage-backed securities chart below.

FNMA 3.5% Coupon 3 Month Chart

What's going on here?

This 3 month chart shows mortgage bond prices going higher the past three months.  In this chart, green is good for lower rates and red is bad and brings higher rates.

Those horizontal red lines show areas where we expect price resistance to exist.  Resistance to higher prices.  As you can see this past week the prices have been moving sideways, in a narrow channel.  This chart pattern looks like the market is attempting to break that resistance and go higher.

Now, for a longer term perspective, check out this 2 year chart below.

FNMA 3.5% Coupon 2 Year Chart

What is interesting to me here is how, if prices can break higher from a resistance level set back in November 2013, that the market will have some room to run.

Most fundamental aspects of the economy, where we sit in the waning of Quantitive Easing of the Federal Reserve, and the duration of the time we've had such low mortgage rates leads one to believe that mortgage rates should be going higher.

If current resistance levels hold, that will likely be the case.

But......but......it pays to heed the market price action at these levels.  As we've learned the past handful of years, it is very hard to predict what will happen.

Stay tuned!

GREAT NEWS FOR HOMEBUYERS
The bottom line of this blog post is that if you are planning a new home purchase during the busiest time of the year of the year for purchases, you are getting a nice market gift of low rates.

THINKING OF A REFINANCE
If you are in need to refinance your mortgage financing, here is your window of opportunity to save on the cost of the interest.

Of course I can help on either of those needs.  To loop me in, please call at 952-886-7227 or get my contact info at www.brettgrendahl.com

Brett Grendahl

Good Start to 2014 for Mortgage Rates

Happy New Year gang!

For the first post of this year, and for some time, I thought to cover the good start for mortgage rates for 2014.

After appearing that rates were moving yet higher, given the Fed's move to beginning tapering their Quantitive Easing, and what looked like promising jobs data, last Friday's monthly Jobs Report came in much weaker than expected.  This gave mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) their best rally day in some time.

Look at this chart:

3 Month Fannie Mae 4% MBS

That big green bar towards the right was last Friday's trading activity.  That positive rally broke the trend line of the downward action in price over the past three months.  Coupled with today's continuation rally and rates should be stable for the coming weeks.

Most likely, the price will move up to test that blue line (the 200 day moving average).

For those spring market purchases this price action should temper any major rise in rates.  Good news, right?

I expect to be blogging more regularly this year.  So, stay tuned here for more from the front lines of mortgage finance on mortgage rates, Qualified Mortgages, and what it really takes to get a mortgage closed in today's lending environment.

I CAN HELP YOU

If you are purchasing a home in any of the 50 States I can help you.  Why take the risk of working with anyone else.  My deep credit underwriting background and broad industry experience benefits you in the comfort of knowing you will close on time and as expected.  That trust and confidence of my clients is what has built my book of business and kept me around so many years.

I'm always happy to start a relationship with people who value what I do, make home purchase dreams come true!

"Life is a garden.  Dig it!"

BG

www.brettgrendahl.com

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Mortgage Rate Forecast | Going Lower?

A quick post after reviewing the price action on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) I want to share what I see.

So, what is it?

Well, not to bore you with the nitty-gritty technical details that provide a foundation for what I am predicting but, take a look at the last few days of price action depicted below.  You can see the last four days price is moving horizontal in small daily ranges.

This is occurring after MBS prices have moved back ABOVE their 200 day moving average (depicted in the blue line).  This setup is generally bullish;  meaning odds favor higher prices ahead.

As a refresher, higher prices lead to lower mortgage rates, and vice versa.

Who knows what the catalyst for the move higher in price from here will be?  It might be some news report.  It might be something from the equity markets?  It really doesn't matter but the technical setup is ideal for a move higher.

Stay tuned.

3 Month Fannie Mae 4.0% Coupon (MBS) Price

Brett  Grendahl

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I can lend in all 50 of the United States.

Economic Weakness Persists and Mortgage Rates Move Lower

Good morning gang,

I haven't written a blog post in a bit, super busy on many fronts and nothing too much to report.  So, why waste the time writing and tire your eyeballs on the trivial, right?

Well, after looking at the price action in the mortgage-backed securities market today there is news worth sharing.  So, here we go!

What is it?

Well, the September Jobs Report was released today.  Normally, this monthly report comes out on the first Friday of the month but with the government shutdown it was delayed.  Now, the report came out at 148,000 jobs versus the 180,000+ number the market expected.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are up strong on the news and, more importantly, prices have moved back above their 200 day moving average.  Remember, as MBS prices go up, mortgage rates go lower.

Look at these charts:

3 Month Chart on Fannie Mae 4.0% Coupon

The chart above shows how today's move up in price has moved above the 200 day moving average, shown in the blue line.

One Year Chart on Fannie Mae 4.0% Coupon

The chart above shows a longer-term view of the price action.  You can clearly see how prices fell hard from May through September.  From all that choppy price action in August and September prices formed a base of support and have since moved higher.

From the technical setup the odds are increasing that we will see mortgage rates move lower.  I expect that a good price target is a conforming 30 year fixed rate around 4.0%.  For now, I don't think below 4.0% with no points will become available but, in this manipulated market, who really knows, right? :)

Another wrinkle to these improving rates is that we might see the conforming fixed rates move back below the jumbo fixed rates.  We are in a time of a weird market anomaly where the jumbo rates are sometimes pricing lower than the conforming ones.  This won't persist forever.

Bottom line:  expect better mortgage rate pricing in the weeks ahead.

Brett

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I can provide mortgage financing in all 50 states.

The Fed, Tapering and Unemployment Rate Target

Good morning folks!

It is a rainy morning here in Minneapolis and the changing of seasons is being fully felt by me.  A very different feeling than the past few years living in Northern California.  My daughter is excited for snow.  Let's hold off a bit on that, can we? :)

Okay, the announcement from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting comes this afternoon.

For months I have expected this to the date that they announce the beginning of tapering of their Quantitative Easing (QE).  The market has been talked there and this is still expected.

I think they will announce tapering to begin in October at a rate of $10-15 billion per month.

Mortgage rates have priced this in and we will likely see a rally in mortgage bonds (driving mortgage rates a little lower) on the news.

Also, I would not be surprised to see the Fed also announce something like lowering the unemployment rate target.  The unemployment rate target is what they've communicated to the market as their trigger point for when they will raise their Overnight Rate.

By lowering the target they will give the market something to offset what they take away with the beginning of tapering.

It should make for an interesting afternoon.

Brett

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