Good morning,
Mortgage bonds are rocking in trading this morning and we have the lowest mortgage rates available since last December.
There is a strong chance for more improvement. Why?
Well, the technical picture for higher mortgage bond prices (lower rates) is shaping up. Then, if we see escalating military tension in the Korean Peninsula OR an overdue pullback in the equity markets, that should drive more momentum to the bond market.
Stay tuned.
BG
www.brettgrendahl.com
P.S. I can assist with home financing needs in any of the 50 United States.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Twin Cities a Home Sellers Market in 2013?
Here is an interesting article, relevant to you if you are considering buying or selling a home in the Twin Cities this year.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/Minneapolis-housing-2013/home-buyers-market/prweb10396169.htm
From my own personal experience of operating a mortgage company and owning several properties, the Twin Cities marketplace was one of the very first in the country to turn south. I can recall speaking to a buddy who ran a mortgage company in Atlanta in 2007 telling him how the market was eerily quiet. He was shocked and said his production was only down 6% year-over-year at that time (early Spring). I told him the Case-Shiller projections for 20% price declines in some markets. This was before most people has heard of the Case-Shiller data. He could not believe it!
Well, believe we all have had to accept.
So, it is not surprising to me that now this marketplace is showing great strength rising out of the doldrums.
BG
http://www.prweb.com/releases/Minneapolis-housing-2013/home-buyers-market/prweb10396169.htm
From my own personal experience of operating a mortgage company and owning several properties, the Twin Cities marketplace was one of the very first in the country to turn south. I can recall speaking to a buddy who ran a mortgage company in Atlanta in 2007 telling him how the market was eerily quiet. He was shocked and said his production was only down 6% year-over-year at that time (early Spring). I told him the Case-Shiller projections for 20% price declines in some markets. This was before most people has heard of the Case-Shiller data. He could not believe it!
Well, believe we all have had to accept.
So, it is not surprising to me that now this marketplace is showing great strength rising out of the doldrums.
BG
Market Technicals and Fundamental Catalysts
Sitting here this morning, sipping my coffee, scouring the financial news and watching mortgage bonds trade. Rainy outside, blah. I guess the rain of this week should setup some green grass outside soon.
So, here it is Tuesday and a slow news day for the markets today. In these cases the technicals drive the trading activity for equities and bonds.
Mortgage bonds have traded higher the past few days, sending mortgage rates back to several month lows. More importantly, mortgage bonds have moved back above their 200 day moving average which has been acting as price resistance since December.
Stocks continue their upside ride, moving up within a narrow channel of price movement, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite.
What's ahead? Some possible big news events that may turn into catalysts of big moves.
What is the news?
Well, on Wednesday we will get the Fed's minutes of their most recent policy meeting. The language of those minutes will be read closely for clues to the continuation of Quantitative Easing and their continued purchasing of mortgage bonds on the open market.
Also, have you seen the political banter between North Korea and South Korea (an by default, the United States)? Who knows what will happen but any major escalation of the conflict from words to armed conflict would definitely take stocks down and move bonds up.
The technical landscape is ripe for bonds to go higher and a 10% or so pullback in the equity markets. All these markets need are the right fundamental event, a news event, and the spark for such a move exists.
That is the takeaway on the markets for now.
BG
How to Contact Me
So, here it is Tuesday and a slow news day for the markets today. In these cases the technicals drive the trading activity for equities and bonds.
Mortgage bonds have traded higher the past few days, sending mortgage rates back to several month lows. More importantly, mortgage bonds have moved back above their 200 day moving average which has been acting as price resistance since December.
Stocks continue their upside ride, moving up within a narrow channel of price movement, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite.
What's ahead? Some possible big news events that may turn into catalysts of big moves.
What is the news?
Well, on Wednesday we will get the Fed's minutes of their most recent policy meeting. The language of those minutes will be read closely for clues to the continuation of Quantitative Easing and their continued purchasing of mortgage bonds on the open market.
Also, have you seen the political banter between North Korea and South Korea (an by default, the United States)? Who knows what will happen but any major escalation of the conflict from words to armed conflict would definitely take stocks down and move bonds up.
The technical landscape is ripe for bonds to go higher and a 10% or so pullback in the equity markets. All these markets need are the right fundamental event, a news event, and the spark for such a move exists.
That is the takeaway on the markets for now.
BG
How to Contact Me
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Sharing some ideas on the financial markets
Hey everyone!
I am very excited for spring. Felt good to see outdoor activities this weekend, didn't it?
Now that the family has settled into a new life routine after our big move I find myself back into my normal routine of scouring stock charts, financial news, mortgage bond charts, and trying to get a glimpse into some future possibilities.
Found some interesting articles and have some ideas. Here are some of the more important ones.
The current labor participation rate in our economy is at 1979 levels. The number on this is 90 million people in our country. Let me repeat. That was the 70's. At face value, not an exciting statistic.
Read the article here
The bond market rallied strong on last Friday's Jobs Report. While an immediate pullback is likely, the die is cast for more momentum to the upside and improving mortgage rates in our near future. Will this be the final rally of the now12 year bull cycle? Feels like it. But, keep in mind, this is a manipulated market and we are at either the government discretion or a market move once the control is back in the hands of the market.
More costs to consumers for home loans? The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau is considering a Compliance Fee to be allowed to be a new line item charge you will see on your next loan transaction. What is this? Given all the additional work needed on a loan these days to maintain compliance with the broadly sweeping regulations I'd rate this likelihood high.
As always, I'm happy to weigh in with thoughts regarding your plans and mortgage financing. Click below to get my direct contact information.
Brett Grendahl
I am very excited for spring. Felt good to see outdoor activities this weekend, didn't it?
Now that the family has settled into a new life routine after our big move I find myself back into my normal routine of scouring stock charts, financial news, mortgage bond charts, and trying to get a glimpse into some future possibilities.
Found some interesting articles and have some ideas. Here are some of the more important ones.
The current labor participation rate in our economy is at 1979 levels. The number on this is 90 million people in our country. Let me repeat. That was the 70's. At face value, not an exciting statistic.
Read the article here
The bond market rallied strong on last Friday's Jobs Report. While an immediate pullback is likely, the die is cast for more momentum to the upside and improving mortgage rates in our near future. Will this be the final rally of the now12 year bull cycle? Feels like it. But, keep in mind, this is a manipulated market and we are at either the government discretion or a market move once the control is back in the hands of the market.
More costs to consumers for home loans? The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau is considering a Compliance Fee to be allowed to be a new line item charge you will see on your next loan transaction. What is this? Given all the additional work needed on a loan these days to maintain compliance with the broadly sweeping regulations I'd rate this likelihood high.
As always, I'm happy to weigh in with thoughts regarding your plans and mortgage financing. Click below to get my direct contact information.
Brett Grendahl
Saturday, April 6, 2013
These sure are weird times in the financial markets. Don't you think?
We get a dismal Jobs Report today of 88,000 gains in March. This is far below the 150,000 needed on a monthly basis to keep up with the population growth. It is super far below what is needed to replace the displaced in the Great Recession.
So, what happens to the markets?
Well, the futures markets priced 1% or so declines in the major indexes. The markets open but gain strength during the day and the close is nothing more than an average day in the markets.
Bonds?
Well, they rocked it today! Big spike up on big volume.
Going back to the first point, these are weird times. Normally, during such a big move in the bond markets you'd expect to see the opposite in the equities. Not really so today, was it?
What news will take the markets up these days? What will take them down? Hard to predict.
Why?
We posit that we are in such a delicate thread of government manipulation of the financial markets and currency that it is extremely difficult to "read the tea leaves" the market gives us. And, so we get the weird inter-market activity that is par for the course these days.
Look for an email blast before Monday about the near future forecast for mortgage rates.
Not getting my emails? If you want them, sign up at www.brettgrendahl.com
BG
We get a dismal Jobs Report today of 88,000 gains in March. This is far below the 150,000 needed on a monthly basis to keep up with the population growth. It is super far below what is needed to replace the displaced in the Great Recession.
So, what happens to the markets?
Well, the futures markets priced 1% or so declines in the major indexes. The markets open but gain strength during the day and the close is nothing more than an average day in the markets.
Bonds?
Well, they rocked it today! Big spike up on big volume.
Going back to the first point, these are weird times. Normally, during such a big move in the bond markets you'd expect to see the opposite in the equities. Not really so today, was it?
What news will take the markets up these days? What will take them down? Hard to predict.
Why?
We posit that we are in such a delicate thread of government manipulation of the financial markets and currency that it is extremely difficult to "read the tea leaves" the market gives us. And, so we get the weird inter-market activity that is par for the course these days.
Look for an email blast before Monday about the near future forecast for mortgage rates.
Not getting my emails? If you want them, sign up at www.brettgrendahl.com
BG
Friday, April 5, 2013
Jobs Report news taking mortgage bonds higher, mortgage rates lower
Good morning,
Pulling my head up from watching the mortgage bond trading activity to report solid gains for mortgage bonds today.
The monthly Jobs Report news is out with only 88,000 jobs created in March. This number is far below what we need for a healthy economy. On the news, the markets are moving.
For now, it looks like lower mortgage rates are in our near future.
BG
Pulling my head up from watching the mortgage bond trading activity to report solid gains for mortgage bonds today.
The monthly Jobs Report news is out with only 88,000 jobs created in March. This number is far below what we need for a healthy economy. On the news, the markets are moving.
For now, it looks like lower mortgage rates are in our near future.
BG
Monday, April 1, 2013
Mortgage Rates Pricing Better Today
Quick post after I reviewed today's mortgage rate pricing. I'm seeing better pricing on both conforming and non-conforming rates as we begin the month and quarter.
From the looks of the charts, I think we should see further improvement.
More detailed analysis and commentary to come in a future post.
From the looks of the charts, I think we should see further improvement.
More detailed analysis and commentary to come in a future post.
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